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 diabetes prediction


An Improved Ensemble-Based Machine Learning Model with Feature Optimization for Early Diabetes Prediction

Islam, Md. Najmul, Rimon, Md. Miner Hossain, Shamim, Shah Sadek-E-Akbor, Fahad, Zarif Mohaimen, Mony, Md. Jehadul Islam, Chowdhury, Md. Jalal Uddin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diabetes is a serious worldwide health issue, and successful intervention depends on early detection. However, overlapping risk factors and data asymmetry make prediction difficult. To use extensive health survey data to create a machine learning framework for diabetes classification that is both accurate and comprehensible, to produce results that will aid in clinical decision-making. Using the BRFSS dataset, we assessed a number of supervised learning techniques. SMOTE and Tomek Links were used to correct class imbalance. To improve prediction performance, both individual models and ensemble techniques such as stacking were investigated. The 2015 BRFSS dataset, which includes roughly 253,680 records with 22 numerical features, is used in this study. Strong ROC-AUC performance of approximately 0.96 was attained by the individual models Random Forest, XGBoost, CatBoost, and LightGBM.The stacking ensemble with XGBoost and KNN yielded the best overall results with 94.82\% accuracy, ROC-AUC of 0.989, and PR-AUC of 0.991, indicating a favourable balance between recall and precision. In our study, we proposed and developed a React Native-based application with a Python Flask backend to support early diabetes prediction, providing users with an accessible and efficient health monitoring tool.


Research on Milling Machine Predictive Maintenance Based on Machine Learning and SHAP Analysis in Intelligent Manufacturing Environment

Zhao, Wen, Ding, Jiawen, Huang, Xueting, Zhang, Yibo

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the context of intelligent manufacturing, this paper conducts a series of experimental studies on the predictive maintenance of industrial milling machine equipment based on the AI4I 2020 dataset. This paper proposes a complete predictive maintenance experimental process combining artificial intelligence technology, including six main links: data preprocessing, model training, model evaluation, model selection, SHAP analysis, and result visualization. By comparing and analyzing the performance of eight machine learning models, it is found that integrated learning methods such as XGBoost and random forest perform well in milling machine fault prediction tasks. In addition, with the help of SHAP analysis technology, the influence mechanism of different features on equipment failure is deeply revealed, among which processing temperature, torque and speed are the key factors affecting failure. This study combines artificial intelligence and manufacturing technology, provides a methodological reference for predictive maintenance practice in an intelligent manufacturing environment, and has practical significance for promoting the digital transformation of the manufacturing industry, improving production efficiency and reducing maintenance costs.


Generalizable Diabetes Risk Stratification via Hybrid Machine Learning Models

Parvez, Athar, Mufti, Muhammad Jawad

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Background/Purpose: Diabetes affects over 537 million people worldwide and is projected to reach 783 million by 2045. Early risk stratification can benefit from machine learning. We compare two hybrid classifiers and assess their generalizability on an external cohort. Methods: Two hybrids were built: (i) XGBoost + Random Forest (XGB-RF) and (ii) Support Vector Machine + Logistic Regression (SVM-LR). A leakage-safe, standardized pipeline (encoding, imputation, min-max scaling; SMOTE on training folds only; probability calibration for SVM) was fit on the primary dataset and frozen. Evaluation prioritized threshold-independent discrimination (AUROC/AUPRC) and calibration (Brier, slope/intercept). External validation used the PIMA cohort (N=768) with the frozen pipeline; any thresholded metrics on PIMA were computed at the default rule tau = 0.5. Results: On the primary dataset (PR baseline = 0.50), XGB-RF achieved AUROC ~0.995 and AUPRC ~0.998, outperforming SVM-LR (AUROC ~0.978; AUPRC ~0.947). On PIMA (PR baseline ~0.349), XGB-RF retained strong performance (AUROC ~0.990; AUPRC ~0.959); SVM-LR was lower (AUROC ~0.963; AUPRC ~0.875). Thresholded metrics on PIMA at tau = 0.5 were XGB-RF (Accuracy 0.960; Precision 0.941; Recall 0.944; F1 0.942) and SVM-LR (Accuracy 0.900; Precision 0.855; Recall 0.858; F1 0.857). Conclusions: Across internal and external cohorts, XGB-RF consistently dominated SVM-LR and exhibited smaller external attenuation on ROC/PR with acceptable calibration. These results support gradient-boosting-based hybridization as a robust, transferable approach for diabetes risk stratification and motivate prospective, multi-site validation with deployment-time threshold selection based on clinical trade-offs.


CopulaSMOTE: A Copula-Based Oversampling Approach for Imbalanced Classification in Diabetes Prediction

Aich, Agnideep, Murshed, Md Monzur, Hewage, Sameera, Mayeaux, Amanda

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Diabetes mellitus poses a significant health risk, as nearly 1 in 9 people are affected by it. Early detection can significantly lower this risk. Despite significant advancements in machine learning for identifying diabetic cases, results can still be influenced by the imbalanced nature of the data. To address this challenge, our study considered copula-based data augmentation, which preserves the dependency structure when generating data for the minority class and integrates it with machine learning (ML) techniques. We selected the Pima Indian dataset and generated data using A2 copula, then applied four machine learning algorithms: logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting, and extreme gradient boosting. Our findings indicate that XGBoost combined with A2 copula oversampling achieved the best performance improving accuracy by 4.6%, precision by 15.6%, recall by 20.4%, F1-score by 18.2% and AUC by 25.5% compared to the standard SMOTE method. Furthermore, we statistically validated our results using the McNemar test. This research represents the first known use of A2 copulas for data augmentation and serves as an alternative to the SMOTE technique, highlighting the efficacy of copulas as a statistical method in machine learning applications.


From Chat to Checkup: Can Large Language Models Assist in Diabetes Prediction?

Sakib, Shadman, Akhand, Oishy Fatema, Abrar, Ajwad

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) models have been widely used for diabetes prediction, the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) for structured numerical data is still not well explored. In this study, we test the effectiveness of LLMs in predicting diabetes using zero-shot, one-shot, and three-shot prompting methods. We conduct an empirical analysis using the Pima Indian Diabetes Database (PIDD). We evaluate six LLMs, including four open-source models: Gemma-2-27B, Mistral-7B, Llama-3.1-8B, and Llama-3.2-2B. We also test two proprietary models: GPT-4o and Gemini Flash 2.0. In addition, we compare their performance with three traditional machine learning models: Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine (SVM). We use accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score as evaluation metrics. Our results show that proprietary LLMs perform better than open-source ones, with GPT-4o and Gemma-2-27B achieving the highest accuracy in few-shot settings. Notably, Gemma-2-27B also outperforms the traditional ML models in terms of F1-score. However, there are still issues such as performance variation across prompting strategies and the need for domain-specific fine-tuning. This study shows that LLMs can be useful for medical prediction tasks and encourages future work on prompt engineering and hybrid approaches to improve healthcare predictions.


Enhancing Bagging Ensemble Regression with Data Integration for Time Series-Based Diabetes Prediction

Ngo, Vuong M., Vinh, Tran Quang, Kearney, Patricia, Roantree, Mark

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diabetes is a chronic metabolic disease characterized by elevated blood glucose levels, leading to complications like heart disease, kidney failure, and nerve damage. Accurate state-level predictions are vital for effective healthcare planning and targeted interventions, but in many cases, data for necessary analyses are incomplete. This study begins with a data engineering process to integrate diabetes-related datasets from 2011 to 2021 to create a comprehensive feature set. We then introduce an enhanced bagging ensemble regression model (EBMBag+) for time series forecasting to predict diabetes prevalence across U.S. cities. Several baseline models, including SVMReg, BDTree, LSBoost, NN, LSTM, and ERMBag, were evaluated for comparison with our EBMBag+ algorithm. The experimental results demonstrate that EBMBag+ achieved the best performance, with an MAE of 0.41, RMSE of 0.53, MAPE of 4.01, and an R2 of 0.9.


Diabetes Prediction and Management Using Machine Learning Approaches

Alzboon, Mowafaq Salem, Alqaraleh, Muhyeeddin, Al-Batah, Mohammad Subhi

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diabetes has emerged as a significant global health issue, especially with the increasing number of cases in many countries. This trend Underlines the need for a greater emphasis on early detection and proactive management to avert or mitigate the severe health complications of this disease. Over recent years, machine learning algorithms have shown promising potential in predicting diabetes risk and are beneficial for practitioners. Objective: This study highlights the prediction capabilities of statistical and non-statistical machine learning methods over Diabetes risk classification in 768 samples from the Pima Indians Diabetes Database. It consists of the significant demographic and clinical features of age, body mass index (BMI) and blood glucose levels that greatly depend on the vulnerability against Diabetes. The experimentation assesses the various types of machine learning algorithms in terms of accuracy and effectiveness regarding diabetes prediction. These algorithms include Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Gradient Boosting and Neural Network Models. The results show that the Neural Network algorithm gained the highest predictive accuracy with 78,57 %, and then the Random Forest algorithm had the second position with 76,30 % accuracy. These findings show that machine learning techniques are not just highly effective. Still, they also can potentially act as early screening tools in predicting Diabetes within a data-driven fashion with valuable information on who is more likely to get affected. In addition, this study can help to realize the potential of machine learning for timely intervention over the longer term, which is a step towards reducing health outcomes and disease burden attributable to Diabetes on healthcare systems


A Comparative Study of Machine Learning Techniques for Early Prediction of Diabetes

Alzboon, Mowafaq Salem, Al-Batah, Mohammad, Alqaraleh, Muhyeeddin, Abuashour, Ahmad, Bader, Ahmad Fuad

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

-- In many nations, diabetes is becoming a significant health problem, and early identi - fication and control are crucial. Using machine learning algorithms to predict diabetes has yielded encouraging results. Using the Pima Indians Dia - betes dataset, this study attempts to evaluate the efficacy of several machine - learning methods for diabetes prediction. The collection includes infor - mation on 768 patients, such as their ages, BMIs, and glucose levels. The techniques assessed are Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, k - Nearest Neighbors, Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Gradient Boosting, and Neural Network. The findings indicate that the Neural Network algorithm performed the best, with an accuracy of 78.57 The study implies that machine learning algorithms can aid diabetes prediction and be an efficient early detection tool. Diabetes is a chronic metabolic disease af - fecting millions worldwide and is a significant cause of morbidity and death [1]. High blood glucose levels characterize the disorder and can result in some complications, including cardiovascular disease, stroke, blindness, and amputations. To prevent or postpone com - plications, diabetes must be recognized and treated as soon as feasible; however, this can be challenging because symptoms may be mild or absent [2]. Machine learning (ML) is a subfield of artificial intelligence that comprises the de - velopment of algorithms that can learn from data and generate inferences or predictions without being explicitly programmed. ML algorithms are beneficial in several fields, in - cluding healthcare.


A Comparative Study of Diabetes Prediction Based on Lifestyle Factors Using Machine Learning

Nguyen, Bruce, Zhang, Yan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diabetes is a prevalent chronic disease with significant health and economic burdens worldwide. Early prediction and diagnosis can aid in effective management and prevention of complications. This study explores the use of machine learning models to predict diabetes based on lifestyle factors using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 2015 survey. The dataset consists of 21 lifestyle and health-related features, capturing aspects such as physical activity, diet, mental health, and socioeconomic status. Three classification models, Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Logistic Regression, are implemented and evaluated to determine their predictive performance. The models are trained and tested using a balanced dataset, and their performances are assessed based on accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. The results indicate that the Decision Tree, KNN, and Logistic Regression achieve an accuracy of 0.74, 0.72, and 0.75, respectively, with varying strengths in precision and recall. The findings highlight the potential of machine learning in diabetes prediction and suggest future improvements through feature selection and ensemble learning techniques.


SmartEdge: Smart Healthcare End-to-End Integrated Edge and Cloud Computing System for Diabetes Prediction Enabled by Ensemble Machine Learning

Hennebelle, Alain, Dieng, Qifan, Ismail, Leila, Buyya, Rajkumar

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Internet of Things (IoT) revolutionizes smart city domains such as healthcare, transportation, industry, and education. The Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) is gaining prominence, particularly in smart hospitals and Remote Patient Monitoring (RPM). The vast volume of data generated by IoMT devices should be analyzed in real-time for health surveillance, prognosis, and prediction of diseases. Current approaches relying on Cloud computing to provide the necessary computing and storage capabilities do not scale for these latency-sensitive applications. Edge computing emerges as a solution by bringing cloud services closer to IoMT devices. This paper introduces SmartEdge, an AI-powered smart healthcare end-to-end integrated edge and cloud computing system for diabetes prediction. This work addresses latency concerns and demonstrates the efficacy of edge resources in healthcare applications within an end-to-end system. The system leverages various risk factors for diabetes prediction. We propose an Edge and Cloud-enabled framework to deploy the proposed diabetes prediction models on various configurations using edge nodes and main cloud servers. Performance metrics are evaluated using, latency, accuracy, and response time. By using ensemble machine learning voting algorithms we can improve the prediction accuracy by 5% versus a single model prediction.